This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory
It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.